Cbs Picks Against Spread

At Pickswise we cover all of the Power Five NCAA football today, with full game previews, picks, and betting analysis brought to you by our college football experts. A typical college football season runs from August to December and is preceded by the College Football Bowl Season and College Football Playoff, culminating in The College Football Playoff National Championship game in January.With so many conferences and hundreds of matches played every weekend, the biggest test with any college football picks is unearthing those hidden gems. Here at Pickswise, that is exactly what we do. By focusing on the Power 5 conferences and the Top-25 teams, along with a select number of other matches, our experts are able to focus on the key games, and leave no stone unturned in our research. Pickswise is the home of free NCAAF picks, and we break down all of today’s college football action, with each pick coming with accompanying analysis, including all of the key stats, trends, and reasons for our pick.Just as we do with the College Football Playoffs, our experts cover everything you need to know during Bowl Season with our College Football Bowl Picks. The College Football Bowl games present a unique opportunity, with so many games played and storylines written at this point, our experts can dive deep into our research ahead of making our picks. The Pickswise Experts make College Football Bowl picks on every bowl game, and with many smaller conference schools involved, our level of expertise across the NCAA sees us thrive in this spot. Check back leading up to the College Football Bowl season for our in-depth insight into the 2023 bowl games, including the New Year’s six – Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Cotton Bowl Classic, Peach Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl.

Against the spread betting is extremely popular in football and that’s one of the main reasons why it’s one of the most popular college football picks on our site.

All of our NCAAF picks are absolutely free, all season long. We have a team of expert NCAAF handicappers on hand to preview every Power 5 or Top-25 ranked match, every week, all season long. Each of these previews come with our experts’ NCAAF pick on the three main markets (Money Line, Spreads & Totals) with a full breakdown of why they like a particular side, as well as a confidence rating for each individual NCAAF pick. You can find every NCAAF pick throughout the season right here on the NCAAF Picks page, or check out the NCAAF Parlays, or NCAAF Computer Picks pages for even more insight into betting better on NCAA Football this week.If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. T&C’s Apply. Void where prohibited. If you click on a link on this site which takes you to a bookmaker or casino and you subsequently open an account, Pickswise may receive a commission. Voting spread lines are accurate as of no more than 54 hours before the start of the game. The lines are static and therefore may not be indicative of the line value at the current time. All votes are cast at the lines shown. Voting or vote results are not a recommendation to place a bet. Results are the votes cast by Pickswise users. Bets placed are the responsibility of the bettor.

Here you will find our free college football picks for every game of the 2023 season including our college football picks against the spread, straight-up, money line picks and totals picks (over/under). Our data-devouring experts find you the best betting trends and a lot more to bring you expert NCAAF picks each week.The most popular college football pick is against the spread (ATS). Against the spread betting isn’t about picking a winner of the football game, it’s about picking the team who will cover the spread.

Pickswise is the home of all things college football and that doesn’t stop when the playoffs come around. Our experts stay on top of our College Football Playoff picks as the season progresses, reacting to the on-field action and the off-field chatter about who will make the playoffs in the 2023 season. The College Football Playoffs is the target for every school to begin the season, and it’s a talking point right up until the committee makes their announcement. Our experts will stay on top of all the news and action, reacting to the College Football Playoff odds, and make our picks where we see fit. We also preview and publish our College Football Playoffs picks ahead of each game once they arrive. We highlight the best bets, key stats, trends, team news, and ultimate who we have as our College Football Playoff picks. Check back throughout the season for everything you need to know about the College Football Playoffs.College football picks for the 2023 season. Our college football experts crunch the numbers, look through the injury reports, and betting trends, and data to find the best college football picks every week of the season. Check out this week’s NCAAF picks right now.

We post our college football picks for this weekend a couple of days before the scheduled match. We post our picks early enough so that you can digest the information, do your own research into the match, and make sure you get the best lines and odds for that particular pick. Like anything in sport, some things are unpredictable and on occasion, we may choose to delay posting a pick if there is something like a key injury or likely conditions that could have an impact on the outcome of the match, or our pick itself. Check back leading up to the weekend every week throughout the season to see what NCAAF Picks we have for today.The Storm blitz on the other hand is a little more risky. This will leave us open in the pass game. This play will send the outside linebacker and he will take the QB. This is good because the DE (red) will slant/crash down and the LB, instead of having the QB (like he does on loop), he can help out on the HB when the QB starts giving the ball. Again, this one is a little more risky. They can really hurt the defense with a quick pass to the S vs this blitz.

It’s a dynamic offense because it spreads the defense out horizontally, which creates running lanes inside. Spreading the defense out will also allow you to get your athletes the ball in the open field. The spread isn’t just a throw it every down offense, it has a very explosive running game, especially if the offense has an athletic QB. There are also many teams that use the no huddle play calling system. Using the no huddle will allow you to call a play that can hurt the defense based on their alignment and it will allow your offensive coordinator to call the right play consistently.The Spread Offense is becoming a popular youth football offense. There are more and more youth football teams across the country that are implementing the spread offense. Here is an article on how we defend the spread offense:

Every year we face a very good spread team. They usually go 4 to 5 wide at a time and call all their plays from the line of scrimmage, based on our defensive alignment. This team is usually loaded with great athletes, that are well coached. They skillfully used the wrist coach play calling no huddle system. Our opponent averages 30 points a game, with a ton of passing and rushing yards. The past two games we held them to 20 points or less.Having the safety really deep does leave some room for a post pattern. We gave up a huge play when the offense faked a run and then threw a post pattern to the slot, with the outside receivers running off deep. Here was the play that hurt us: The past season I coached our 8th grade team and we went 10-0 and won our league championship. We were first in the league in scoring and first in our league in points allowed on defense. The defensive tackles will pressure up the A gaps, anchoring and taking away their QB draw and trap. The defensive ends do a hard pass rush, maintaining outside leverage (do not let the QB roll outside the pocket). The outside linebackers line up on the inside shoulder of the inside receivers and get real physical. It is also very important that the defenders get depth on their zone drops, playing the receivers high to low. The middle backers have the hook zones.We held this team to only 2 offensive touchdowns and did a great job with not giving up the big passing play. We switched from our 53 defense to a 44 defense because these guys are very fast vertically and horizontally.All children, especially those considered “high risk”, will learn life lessons from participating in youth football. Join our Youth Football Movement today.

Each week, Fantasy Nerds tracks the game predictions of the best and brightest in the NFL and compares them to the actual game outcomes. Here’s how each expert compares and who is the most accurate game predictor of the 2023 NFL season.We’ve detected that JavaScript is disabled in this browser. Please enable JavaScript or switch to a supported browser to continue using twitter.com. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

State Farm Stadium is the site where the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) will attempt to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City opens this matchup as 2-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 49.5. This matchup report includes football betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) are en route to Allegiant Stadium on Saturday where they will try to defeat the Las Vegas Raiders (6-10). Kansas City opens this game as 8.5-point favorites. The over/under is 53. This report includes betting odds and our expert football picks for todays game. The Buffalo Bills (14-3) will try to beat the Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Buffalo opens this game as 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is set at 50.5. This matchup report includes football betting lines and our pick of the day for this game. U.S. Bank Stadium is the site where the Minnesota Vikings (13-4) will attempt to defeat the New York Giants (9-7-1) on Sunday. Minnesota opens this game as 3-point favorites. The total has been set at 47.5. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) will play the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Paycor Stadium on Sunday. Baltimore opens this contest as 6.5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The total is set at 43.5. This matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free NFL prediction for tonight.

Levi’s Stadium is the location where the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) will play the Dallas Cowboys (13-5) on Sunday. San Francisco is 4-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is 46. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.

The Seattle Seahawks (9-8) are en route to Levi’s Stadium on Saturday where they will compete against the San Francisco 49ers (13-4). Seattle opens as 10-point dogs. The over/under comes in at 43.5. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.The Seattle Seahawks (8-8) will try to defeat the Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Lumen Field on Sunday. Los Angeles opens this game as 3-point dogs. The total has been set at 41. This matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free NFL pick for tonight. This Weeks NFL expert picks and best NFL bets as well as betting tips and parlays. All of our NFL predictions are against the spread. (ATS) Updated weekly. Raymond James Stadium is the location where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) will play the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) on Monday. Dallas opens this matchup as 3-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 45. This games report has current odds, betting predictions, and free picks against the spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) are en route to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday where they will try to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) in the AFC Championship game. Cincinnati opens this contest as 2.5-point dogs. The over/under comes in at 48.5. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.The Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) host the San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday in the NFC Championship game. San Francisco opens this contest as 1.5-point dogs. The over/under is 45.5. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) are headed to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday where they will attempt to beat the Atlanta Falcons (6-10). Tampa Bay opens as 3-point underdogs. The over/under is 40. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) are hitting the road to TIAA Bank Field on Saturday where they will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8). Los Angeles opens this contest as 1.5-point favorites. The betting total is set at 47. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.

The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) are welcoming the New York Giants (10-7-1) at Lincoln Financial Field on Saturday. Philadelphia opens this contest as 7-point favorites. The betting total is set at 47. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.Mel Kiper Jr., among the most esteemed draft gurus in the world, has been an NFL draft expert for almost 40 years. His mock drafts in the weeks before the NFL Draft each year are among the things he is most well-known for. He has created an appetite for others to try to do the same thing by trying to properly forecast every selection in every draft. Many other NFL experts have done the same.

Mel Kiper consistently outperforms the competition at forecasting draft results. The most amazing thing is that when it comes to picking the top draft picks, Kiper is on par with many NFL front offices.In their candidate ratings, other experts take projections into account. Here, the goal might be to predict where the player will go in the draft rather than how they will perform in the NFL. Their draft projections frequently feature assessments of views from NFL team recruiters and personnel executives in addition to evaluations of college performance.

This strategy seeks to forecast a player’s performance in the NFL. Experts who evaluate players typically rely on film analysis, quantifiable production metrics, and analytics to come up with their objective evaluation of a player’s likely potential for success in the NFL.Klicken Sie auf „Alle ablehnen“, wenn Sie nicht möchten, dass wir und unsere Partner Cookies und personenbezogene Daten für diese zusätzlichen Zwecke verwenden.

It’s quietly been a down year for Dalvin Cook. Facing the Bears could be a much-needed confidence boost for the sixth-year back and his team heading into the playoffs. The only two-score win by the Vikings this year was in Week 1, and this is a great chance to bookend the season with easy victories. The Bears defense is getting pushed around, and Justin Fields’ absence removes any chance of Chicago putting up a fight. The No. 1 overall pick in the draft will be theirs with a loss and the following result …If Baltimore loses in the early window, locking up the No. 5 seed for Los Angeles, head coach Brandon Staley has indicated he’ll sit his players, presumably starting with Justin Herbert, Derwin James, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa. In other words, all the best Chargers. That gives the Broncos a great chance to win and subtly hurt the Seahawks’ draft pick. It’s the little things in a lost Broncos season. If the Ravens win early, flip the pick.

Despite his Giants being locked into the No. 6 seed, Brian Daboll started the week talking tough about playing starters. By Wednesday, he said the team would make a decision on Friday after talking to the front office. Even if the G-Men are playing their best football this year and are healthier than ever on defense, a fully loaded squad would be no lock to compete for four quarters against the Eagles. My guess is we don’t see a lot of Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones.Rookie Sam Howell starting against one of the best defenses in football? Sure, why not. The Cowboys could wind up easing off the gas pedal in the second half of this game if they see the Eagles up big early, because then the Cowboys would be locked into the No. 5 seed, with no shot at the division title or No. 1 seed. Since Dallas’ backup quarterback (Cooper Rush) should be better than Howell, I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Jarrett Stidham was impossibly good last week, showing an ability to make big throws on the move that he never did in New England. If he can do it against San Francisco, he certainly could provide an encore vs. Kansas City. But I’m not predicting him to win a shootout against Patrick Mahomes with seeding on the line for the Chiefs, especially when the Raiders are playing a ton of backups throughout their defense.After Damar Hamlin’s harrowing incident, it’s hard to even imagine what this game will look and feel like from the outside, much less how it will be for Bills players. The score above reflects where these two teams were positioned entering Monday night, and that was not as equals. Buffalo’s offensive line and New England’s pass rush have changed enough since 2021 to believe the Patriots’ defense can challenge the Bills more than it did a season ago, when Josh Allen and Co. dominated the last two of three matchups. There’s little reason to think Mac Jones and the Pats’ offense can move the ball enough to play four quarters without making a number of big mistakes.

This may be wishcasting. Seeing the subjects of Hard Knocks — the Team of the Around the NFL Podcast! — finish off a campaign that started at 1-6 with a win at Lambeau to end Aaron Rodgers’ season would be a beautiful feeling of something new. We’ve seen the Packers rally to the playoffs before, and they may very well do it again, but their defensive struggles against power running teams remain. The Lions’ defensive strength is in the pass rush, so will the Packers and Rodgers resist playing hero ball? I want to believe.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Damar Hamlin had his breathing tube removed overnight and “continues to progress remarkably in his recovery,” the Bills announced Friday, per the physicians at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center. Hamlin delivered a message to the team Friday morning and spent time talking to various teammates on FaceTime, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.Tom Brady wants to play. Todd Bowles says everyone’s playing, although starters may not finish the game, considering Bowels indicated third quarterback Kyle Trask could dress for the first time. Even if the Buccaneers’ starters don’t finish the game, their backups could be more talented than some of the Falcons’ starters. And the Bucs’ defense could be a nightmare for Desmond Ridder. Games like this are hard to pick, but it’s hard to stomach Atlanta as a heavy favorite in any scenario. Deshaun Watson’s three-touchdown game was a mirage under further inspection, with only a handful of dropback completions and more sluggish decision-making for half the game. There’s not much separating these teams, with the Browns’ defense playing much better and Nick Chubb still being Nick Chubb. But the Steelers are playing their best ball — full of belief and greater than the sum of their parts — in a way the Browns have not for most of the season. My pick could depend on Teddy Bridgewater’s status. If he plays and there are positive reports on his throwing hand, give the Dolphins a slight edge against a Jets defense that hasn’t been as fearsome of late. Both pass rushes should dominate. Both offenses will try to find ways to lose, as they have during dueling five-game losing streaks. If Skylar Thompson starts, I’ll probably lean toward the Jets, who trounced the Dolphins the last time these teams played, with Thompson playing most of those snaps.

NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent discusses his experience observing this year’s Ozzie Newsome General Manager Forum and the Quarterback Coaching Summit.

It’s been impossible to get a feel for either of these teams this season. One final zag by a Saints squad on the brink of a four-game winning streak would be the appropriate ending to New Orleans’ season. Sam Darnold and Andy Dalton are both playing better than expected, and the young skill-position talent around them is sneaky fun. Why do I sneakily love this meaningless game and why can’t I quit the NFC South?

The Colts went 21 straight drives without a touchdown before a garbage-time score by Sam Ehlinger last week. Frank Reich’s absence is missed, with Indy getting outscored by 86 points under Jeff Saturday and now owning a worse overall point differential on the season than Houston. After three games of improved play, the Texans laid an egg last week. But they’ve shown enough over the last month to believe Lovie Smith could coach this team straight out of the No. 1 overall pick.Zac Taylor is a real one. In his actions on the field Monday night and in his press availability Wednesday, Taylor showed tremendous leadership. There’s no way to know how the events of the last week will impact the Bengals on the field, so I’m evaluating these teams as if it’s another game, which it most certainly is not. Lamar Jackson is still not back at practice, and these teams are not equally matched even if he were to play. While the Ravens’ defense may be the better side, the Bengals’ offense is more complete and explosive. In big games, lean offense. If Jackson plays, add a touchdown to the Ravens. Travis Kelce is one of the NFL’s top pass-catching threats, but his contract doesn’t exactly reflect that standing. Still, the Chiefs TE told Vanity Fair that he loves the situation he’s in in Kansas City. Giving up 500 yards to a Jarrett Stidham-led offense is one thing. Doing it against the David Blough Cardinals with no DeAndre Hopkins would be another. Kyle Shanahan should be able to manage snaps for Christian McCaffrey — and possibly Deebo Samuel, if he returns from injury — because this game should be over early.

ATS is short for Against The Spread! It is a term that refers to how a team performs when the point spread is applied to a game, instead of their straight up wins and losses.

When you bet with the spread it means you are taking the favorite to win and cover the spread. For example in the NFL the Dallas Cowboys are favored at -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles. Taking the Dallas Cowboys -3 means you are betting with the spread and want the Cowboys to win by MORE than 3 points.Another way to bet against the spread is to place a parlay wager. With parlays, bettors can make multiple bets against the spread, needing all of them to win for their ticket to cash. Parlays are harder to win than straight bets, as bettors need multiple outcomes to work out in their favor, but they also have the potential to pay out more than straight bets as a result.

This is considered a “push” and you are refunded your original bet back. For example if you bet $110 to win $100 against the spread you would get the $110 back.

If you took the NY Giants as your pick at a sportsbook against the spread you would have won your bet! The Giants adjusted score would be 28-7=21, making the final score against the spread 21-20 in favor of the Giants.If you took the Golden State Warriors as your pick at the sportsbook against the spread you would have lost your bet! While the Warriors won the game outright, their score would be adjusted with the point spread to 99-10=89. That would make the final score with the spread involved 89-90. Bets on Denver would cover the spread, meaning Nuggets bettors would have won ATS at a Vegas Sportsbook. ATS in sports betting means – Against the Spread. Most sports bettors and handicappers use the acronym when referring to a teams win/loss record against the spread AKA ATS. Betting against the spread means you are taking the Underdog and the points in a game. To win you want the “underdog” to either win the game outright OR lose by less than the “Point Spread” you are given. As an example of this we will use the following. The New England Patriots (-7) vs NY Jets (+7). In this example we are taking the underdog the NY Jets +7 points. In order for us to win our bet one of two things must happen. First the Jets win the game OR the Jets can lose the game but the final score has the Jets losing by LESS than 7 points. Should the final score be exactly 7 points this is a push and your bet is refunded. Our computer generates expert NFL picks online and expert NFL predictions that can help you cover the point spread for every game. Review our computer’s NFL picks for this NFL week and take advantage of free picks before you place any money on the NFL wagerline. Humans are biased and their opinions color their decisions. Machines don’t care if you have a man crush on Aaron Rodgers or despise Tom Brady. If the stats say Green Bay is the team to win and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will lose, then the computer will tell you – the Packers will win and the Bucs will lose by a field goal. Our free NFL picks at Odds Shark are generated by a computer algorithm that accounts for metrics such as injuries, the time of day, which day of the week it is, recent records, recent matchup records, and much more. Picking NFL games against the spread is one of the toughest tasks in sports betting. Professional handicappers can sell you their NFL picks ATS and you can try to figure out NFL picks ATS yourself, searching through:This is why advanced stats have grown in popularity for fantasy leagues, pro sports teams, agents, and even the general stats geek. And it’s why NFL computer predictions are coming to be relied upon more than the screaming, angle-quoting handicapper. The 2021-2022 NFL offseason saw some very big changes take place, which impacted the NFL season schedule forever. The topic of the NFL expanding to a 17-game regular season had been discussed for a number of years and after the expansion of the NFL Playoffs, the NFL regular season now consists of 17 NFL football games as opposed to 16. The National Football League regular season wraps up on January 9, 2022, and the NFL postseason kicked off on January 15. Super Bowl 56 is slated for Sunday, February 13at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, where the Arizona Cardinals play their home games.

Computer picks have a basis in fact and stats. It’s just a question of finding the right mix of data and math. But don’t forget to weigh handicapping factors that you believe are relevant and important, like how an offensive line will hold up against the pass rush of the opposing defense or just how strong Josh Allen’s passing game is. If you pinpoint that perfect mix, you should be able to find edges and advantages that you can exploit at the sportsbook window each Sunday (or Monday or Thursday).The 2022-23 National Football League season is its 103rd and officially began with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 8th, between Matthew Stafford’s Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills.

The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. Please visit gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on responsible gaming.If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win in any given football game, or you’d rather bet on the match itself instead of a particular team, get in on the betting action with totals picks. As opposed to taking a side, you wager on whether both football teams will combine for a final score of more than (over) or less than (under) the total number of points set by the oddsmakers.

Increasingly, bettors are relying on computers to do the work, to come up with unbiased, stats-focused predictions on NFL games tonight and throughout the regular season, including the Super Bowl. Of course, the output is only as good as the input. If the stats are accurate with significant handicapping measurements and if the formulas or algorithms are solid, then the resulting NFL computer selections can be reliable.

You should consider choosing NFL computer picks because there’s no human influence, which means there’s no personal bias at play. NFL computer picks also don’t make mistakes in their calculations. National Football League computer picks are influenced strictly by facts and figures. On average, NFL computer picks are more accurate than the expert NFL football handicappers of the world.Depending on how complex (does it include player data, weather variations, and depth chart consideration?) the formula is, you could have success with picking more NFL games at sportsbooks online. Of course, naysayers will always argue that a coin toss or some zoo animal will be able to do just as well predicting a Thursday night football score, but those are true flukes.

For some bettors, NFL picks services might be worth it. For other bettors, sports picks services may not be worth it. If you don’t have a full grasp in regards to how to bet on NFL games, picks services probably don’t make a whole lot of sense. But if you’re a pro at betting on football, it could be another way to get a leg up.

Totals picks make late-game drives in matchups that are well out of reach exhilarating as they have the potential to push the points total over or under the line that was set. Odds Shark previews every NFL season game, offering expert analysis along with NFL betting picks on the over/under market.This is a computer-generated pick that calculates profits off the last 100 NFL picks made based on a bettor placing $100 on each game. “To Win” indicates any NFL picks straight-up or moneyline bet that the player wins. “ATS” is a representation of the record based on wagers against the spread. “Total O/U” shows the record for both OVER or UNDER picks.

Since Prescott’s return in Week 7, the Cowboys rank first in points per drive (3.05), fifth in EPA per drive (0.90), and sixth in play-to-play success rate (48.7%). Kellen Moore is hitting all the right buttons. As I said earlier, I am throwing out the Munich result as the Seahawks were playing at 6:30 a.m. local time and they came on strong late in that game. Geno Smith just may be the real deal. The Seahawks have had an extra week to prepare for a Raiders team that is not very good defensively and needed overtime to get past an injury-riddled Broncos team that has taken away its head coach’s play-calling and late-game time management duties. You can’t put much stock in the Bucs’ win over the Seahawks before their bye week, as the Seahawks were at a huge disadvantage due to the start time of the game in Munich and outplayed the Bucs once they woke up. But the Browns’ defense is a lot worse than it should be and the 3-7 team is in a weird spot, with their season over but Deshaun Watson back from suspension next week.The 49ers’ quarterback has done better with the turnovers of late — a career-best three straight starts without an interception — and is surrounded by the league’s best set of playmakers, none more dangerous than the underused, underappreciated Deebo Samuel. Samuel had seven catches for 57 yards and three carries for 37 yards and a touchdown in a 38-10 win over the Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday night. He ranks eighth in the NFL and first among wide receivers with 8.7 yards after catch per reception. As we have noted, the Bengals’ run defense is much better with defensive tackle D.J. Reader back in the fold. In his first game back, the Bengals had an 84.4 percent defensive success rate with him on the field, compared to 46.7 percent with him off. A whopping 21.4 percent of their runs with him on the field didn’t advance past the line of scrimmage. Russell Wilson’s pocket awareness and decision-making cost them a win last week against the Raiders, and the Panthers’ defense is a lot better than the Raiders’. Denver also cut Melvin Gordon III for his fumbles, but Gordon was their best healthy running back by far.

This looks like an easy one on paper, and the point spread has already been bet up by four points in four days. The Dolphins were blazing hot, having won four straight before a bye week cooled their engines. After this game, they have three straight road games against the 49ers, Rams and Bills. So, there is no way they are not looking past the lowly Texans, who just got pounded by the Commanders.Matt Ryan was under siege by the Eagles last week and I expect more of the same from T.J. Watt and company. I have been building a case to bet the Steelers here, but there is no value in that point spread. And the Steelers have too many questions to get no value. Gus Bradley’s defense will make it hard for rookie Kenny Pickett, and I certainly don’t want Pickett and less than a field goal on the road.The Cowboys are coming off a dominating performance in Minnesota, while the Giants are really banged up. Plus, New York’s run defense won’t have much of an answer for Tony Pollard or Ezekiel Elliott, while its blitz-crazy ways feed right into Dak Prescott’s mouth. He has completed 74 percent of his passes with no turnovers when blitzed.We want to ride the Lions with another best-bet designation, but cornerback Jeff Okudah has a concussion and their starting guards are out this week. They are embracing the national stage Thursday and the value with the Lions the last three weeks has been their improved defense. The Lions rank 14th in defensive EPA per drive (0.08) and 13th in points allowed per drive (1.9) since Week 9. They ranked last in both categories the first eight weeks.The Bucs have staggered all season, but the schedule is pretty easy from here on out. They face three NFC South games and a Christmas night game at Arizona after this one, with the only really tough games left being at San Francisco and home against the Bengals.

The OT win was a nice one for Carr, after an emotional week. He, Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs are certainly capable of outscoring the Seahawks, but I am not sold that the offense will take off now because they made some plays late against the Broncos. The Seahawks are the better, rested and more prepared team.

Saturday has relied heavily on the run, as the Colts have an early-down pass rate of 41 percent over the first 28 minutes of games, making them the seventh-most run-heavy offense in the NFL the last two weeks. That is not a great plan against the Steelers, who rank fifth in success rate (64.3 percent) and are stuffing 21.8 percent of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage — the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.Dalton really struggled against the Ravens’ and Steelers’ pressure the previous two weeks, and the 49ers’ defense makes those two look slow. The 49ers are allowing 1.49 points per drive, which stands as the lowest average by a San Francisco defense during the Shanahan era. Zach Wilson also got benched this week. He was not playing well and acted like a brat, which was the dealbreaker because the Jets really, really weren’t too hot on going with Mike White or Joe Flacco. They probably could have won with Wilson this week, as the Bears should sit QB Justin Fields and his separated shoulder. Fields played through it last week but stopped running, which is like Liam Neeson stopping from making his three vigilante movies a year. Nothing makes sense anymore. The explosive Samuel could be one of the key players to watch down the stretch and one of the big reasons is because defenses can’t key on him. They also have their hands full with Christian McCaffrey (8.8 YAC/reception) and George Kittle (fifth among tight ends with 6.7 YAC/reception).The Bears’ defense has been much worse since Chicago traded away a bunch of guys, and yet this feels like a field-goal game. I think Matt Eberflus is a pretty good coach and David Montgomery has a big day catching passes from Trevor Siemian (if Fields is out), so I will take the points in the inflated spread.

Since 1940, 284 teams have won eight or more of their first 10 games. The Vikings (minus-3) are the only one with a negative point differential through 10 games (via Stathead).The Bengals’ offensive line looked good for once in a big win over the Steelers last week, and this will be another formidable test for a unit that struggled the first two months of the season. Even during Tennessee’s hot streak, I haven’t been impressed with the Titans’ secondary and Joe Burrow will have to carry the water as the Titans are pretty good against the run.But … I am going with the better coach and with Saquon Barkley as the Giants seek to avenge an earlier loss to the Cowboys. He’s had an MVP-type season before last week, and I think he will shine in the spotlight on Thursday against a Cowboys defense that is much better against the pass than the run.We have total faith that new QB Kyle Allen and RB Dameon Pierce can lose by less than 13 against a hopefully flat Dolphins team. The Texans’ defense has some potential young playmakers, and this team does play hard and has been more competitive (throw out last week) for Lovie Smith. Through 10 games under David Culley last season, the Texans had a point differential of minus-121, despite being plus-2 in turnover margin. This season, through 10 games, the Texans’ point differential is minus-71, despite being minus-2 in turnover margin.We obviously all owe Jeff Saturday an apology. We said he had no business being a head coach, but he beat the Raiders and almost beat the Eagles. Apparently, everyone has been lying when they say coaching in the NFL is tough.

The Raiders are averaging -6.21 defensive EPA per game — the fourth-worst defense Derek Carr has played with in his career. They should be able to slow down Kenneth Walker III, though, as the Raiders have allowed explosive runs at the seventh-lowest rate (7.2 percent).It’s hard to roll with Darnold, but maybe he is a new man with this offensive line. The Panthers have allowed pressure at the NFL’s second-lowest rate (25.8%) and the Broncos’ pass rush is not what it was a month ago. Darnold only needs to put up 17 points — the Broncos are 1-5 when an opposing team scores 17 points. Everybody thinks Nathaniel Hackett is getting fired at some point, and this game will further make the case that waiting until after the season is pointless.

I do get personally invested in this stuff. It took me seven weeks (and seven wins, lol) to get over Kirk Cousins turtling up against the Eagles and I backed the Vikings in a good spot as a home underdog to the Cowboys. They lost by 37 points and Cowboys players were saying that Cousins was visibly shook in the first quarter.

The Rams are waving the white flag. The defense made Andy Dalton look like Tom Brady last week and Matthew Stafford is not playing this week. Bryce Perkins is the new Rams QB and he is your guy if you want to gamble on a team trying to score late to cover a huge point spread. It opened at 10, is now at 15.5 and I won’t be surprised if it hits 17.Mike Williams is hurt again and didn’t practice Wednesday, and it’s become clear that Justin Herbert needs both Williams and Keenan Allen healthy to be elite:

The Cardinals started off well Monday night against the 49ers, but it sure looked like some of the defensive players quit at the end of that game. Red flag? Sure. But the 49ers are a physically dominant team. The Chargers? Not so much. Their defense never got over Joey Bosa’s injury, and besides not getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback they also are a little soft against the run. James Conner should have a big day for the Cardinals regardless of who is playing quarterback. The Chargers rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency metric.The Eagles, meanwhile, haven’t covered the spread three weeks in a row, with close wins over the Texans and Colts sandwiched around their only loss, to the Commanders. Jalen Hurts won’t be bothered by the Packers’ blitzes, as he has six touchdowns to one interception against extra rushers.

Aidan Hutchinson is tied for fourth among all rookie defenders and first among rookie defensive linemen in splash plays (19) and will be asked to chase down a hobbled Josh Allen. Over the first eight weeks, Allen led the league in EPA/dropback when pressured (0.21) by a large margin. He is 13th in EPA/DB when pressured (-0.19) since Week 9. The Bills not named Allen are running the ball better, which also gives us pause.

The Packers are done, and that win over the Cowboys was more about Dallas taking a nap up 14 points than anything else. Rodgers just doesn’t have time to throw and when he does, his receivers stink. And, he hasn’t been as accurate as he has in the past. Maybe a broken thumb has something to do with that.Player Props that Pop: We finally have a full menu to work with, thanks to the Turkey Day games. We’ve been on a roll lately with the few options available to us on Wednesdays (Aaron Rodgers was an easy under last week), and we start off here with Jared Goff over 245.5 yards.